Preseason Rankings
South Alabama
Sun Belt
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#150
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.4#70
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#185
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#123
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 21.9% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 1.9% 0.2%
Average Seed 14.0 12.9 14.2
.500 or above 76.7% 95.1% 75.5%
.500 or above in Conference 73.5% 90.9% 72.4%
Conference Champion 12.6% 23.7% 11.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 0.5% 3.1%
First Four1.2% 1.8% 1.2%
First Round10.6% 21.6% 9.9%
Second Round1.4% 6.3% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 2.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 5.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.00.0 - 1.0
Quad 1b0.1 - 1.00.2 - 2.0
Quad 20.8 - 2.31.0 - 4.3
Quad 34.0 - 4.25.0 - 8.5
Quad 412.5 - 2.917.6 - 11.4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 13   @ Auburn L 72-86 6%    
  Nov 16, 2018 314   Chattanooga W 74-64 89%    
  Nov 17, 2018 289   Jacksonville W 77-69 84%    
  Nov 19, 2018 308   Southeast Missouri St. W 80-71 87%    
  Nov 23, 2018 64   @ Texas A&M L 70-77 18%    
  Nov 28, 2018 163   @ Southern Miss W 72-71 42%    
  Dec 01, 2018 352   Florida A&M W 80-61 97%    
  Dec 05, 2018 292   @ New Orleans W 74-66 67%    
  Dec 08, 2018 195   Tulane W 76-73 69%    
  Dec 19, 2018 349   Alabama A&M W 78-61 95%    
  Dec 29, 2018 130   Richmond L 73-75 54%    
  Jan 03, 2019 175   Appalachian St. W 77-75 65%    
  Jan 05, 2019 221   Coastal Carolina W 74-70 74%    
  Jan 10, 2019 286   @ Arkansas St. W 80-72 66%    
  Jan 12, 2019 264   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 71-64 64%    
  Jan 17, 2019 85   Georgia St. L 70-75 44%    
  Jan 19, 2019 148   Georgia Southern L 74-75 60%    
  Jan 24, 2019 100   @ Louisiana L 75-78 29%    
  Jan 26, 2019 210   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-68 53%    
  Feb 02, 2019 192   Troy W 74-72 68%    
  Feb 07, 2019 286   Arkansas St. W 80-72 82%    
  Feb 09, 2019 264   Arkansas Little Rock W 71-64 79%    
  Feb 13, 2019 148   @ Georgia Southern L 74-75 40%    
  Feb 15, 2019 85   @ Georgia St. L 70-75 26%    
  Feb 23, 2019 192   @ Troy W 74-72 49%    
  Feb 28, 2019 256   Texas Arlington W 79-73 78%    
  Mar 02, 2019 203   Texas St. W 68-65 71%    
  Mar 07, 2019 221   @ Coastal Carolina W 74-70 55%    
  Mar 09, 2019 175   @ Appalachian St. W 77-75 46%    
Projected Record 17.6 - 11.4 10.5 - 7.5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.1 3.4 2.9 1.3 0.4 12.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.7 4.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.9 3.7 0.7 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.0 4.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.3 2.1 4.9 2.4 0.2 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 2.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.3 4.8 6.1 8.7 10.9 11.5 11.2 11.7 10.1 8.1 5.1 3.1 1.3 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.1
16-2 91.0% 2.9    2.2 0.6 0.0
15-3 67.2% 3.4    2.2 1.1 0.1
14-4 38.4% 3.1    1.1 1.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 12.1% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.6% 12.6 7.5 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 77.9% 66.8% 11.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 33.5%
17-1 1.3% 59.9% 50.3% 9.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 19.4%
16-2 3.1% 43.4% 41.0% 2.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 4.1%
15-3 5.1% 26.4% 26.0% 0.3% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.8 0.4%
14-4 8.1% 24.3% 24.3% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 6.1 0.0%
13-5 10.1% 15.8% 15.6% 0.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 8.5 0.2%
12-6 11.7% 13.7% 13.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 10.1
11-7 11.2% 6.6% 6.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 10.5
10-8 11.5% 6.2% 6.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 10.8
9-9 10.9% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.5
8-10 8.7% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.6
7-11 6.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.0
6-12 4.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.7
5-13 3.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-14 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.1% 10.9% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.4 2.8 2.2 88.9 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 6.7 6.5 3.2 90.3